A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
